Are you betting that the Fed will save your portfolio? Don't....

The market continued to rally this week, hoping that the Federal Reserve will soon begin pulling back on interest rate hikes.  This week, the Fed Increased Interest rates by another 75 basis points or 0.75% while the Nasdaq composite Is up almost 17%, and the S&P 500 is up 14% from the potential bottom posted In mid-June.

One Market Watch article quotes a Goldman Sachs analyst that "the emerging embrace of a dovish Fed view could come back to bite investors, given that the Federal Reserve has not yet seen any evidence that Inflation has come under control."

The article goes on to warn that while a decline In Inflation measures could surprise positively, Investors may want to use this as an opportunity to cut risk.

In a bear market, hope seems to give rise to rallies, especially after several months of declines like we have seen so far this year. Author and former money manager of Bill O'Neil, Gil Morales of Gilmo Report, says that just like the bear market In the summer of 2000 and spring/summer of 2008 It Is conceivable that the rally continues to push Its way back up to the 200-day moving average.

A look at the monthly chart of the Nasdaq (QQQ shown here), and we appear to still be in a long-term downtrend channel with potential resistance showing up near current levels.

If the market is to continue the rally, the Nasdaq Composite may need to hold up above this recent resistance breakout. Otherwise, a reversal from this breakout could lead lower with the next level of potential support at the moving averages.

Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) reported earnings on Thursday and gapped up the following day in response. This appears to be purely technical since the earnings reports were anemic at best with AAPL scoring -8% earnings on a 2% increase in revenue and AMZN reporting its second quarterly loss in a row on a 7% increase in sales. With most of the big heavy-weight stocks having reported earnings we can look at them to see where they might lead the market next.

Recent action In AAPL has the stock clearly above Its 200-day moving average with some weekly resistance above. If the current rally Is to hold, you would expect APPL to push higher above the moving average where It may take a rest at potential resistance. However, It will need to hold the 200-day moving average. A break below the 200-day moving average would be a sell signal on the long side and a buy signal on the short side.

AMZN's recent movement which Is both far from the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average has pushed It right into potential weekly resistance levels. Given how extended It Is from the lower moving averages, one might expect a pull-back to occur at the very least and perhaps some consolidation of the recent gains.

Tesla's stock broke out of a recent consolidation and Is up almost 10% on the week but Is also pushing Into potential weekly resistance levels and confluence at the 200-day moving average. Like AMZN It Is also extended from the lower moving averages. A pull-back should be expected after such a push.

Alphabet stock GOOG appears to be caught In an extensive bear flag formation as seen on the weekly. While It Is above the 50-day moving average, It appears to be fighting overhead resistance.

Microsoft MSFT appears to have broken out of a downtrend channel but like the Nasdaq Is running up against a potential Weekly resistance level.

Facebook (META) continues to lag the market nearing lows formed during the COVID crash.

Nvidia (NVDA) Is more difficult to decern as It has yet to report earnings and a massive semiconductor multibillion-dollar stimulus bill looms.  It seems to have found support at the 50-day moving average and is moving up but lagging the market a bit. Earnings report in late August although sentiment from other semiconductor stock earnings reports as well as the semiconductor bill could have a major Impact.

JP Morgan Chase (JP) continues to be caught In a long-term downtrend channel as seen on the weekly chart.

Hopes that the Fed will reverse Interest rates and continue printing money appear to have money moving into stocks. However, based on recent reports, earnings don't appear to be the catalysts unless you agree that better-than-expected declining earnings will somehow keep the market afloat.

For now, what we do know Is that we are in an uptrend within a larger downtrend. Unless the market can somehow move beyond just plain "hope" that the Fed will somehow rescue the economy and into a real economic expansion, this appears to be nothing more than a bear market rally.