Nasdaq on Pace for the Worst 100 days ever

The Nasdaq closed today down 28.53% for the first 100 days of the year. The closest year on record was 1973 at 21.36%. Records show that when the market has fallen more than 10% in the first 100 days, the Nasdaq averages a decline of 15.8%. The S&P on the other hand averages a gain of 9.2%. So yes there may be a bit of hope that the market finds a bottom and ends the year higher. 

However, rather than hope, I prefer to take it day by day and either wait out the bear market in cash or take advantage of the short side, if I can. That said, when markets are near a potential bottom, I like to ask myself a few open-ended questions that may point to some possibilities of what could happen. First, "What is the market doing right now, and what timeframe appears to have control of the market?"
On the one hand, when I look at the Nasdaq daily chart, I see bullish support candles near the same level, around 11,100. This tells me that bulls may be hunting for a bottom. A bullish support candle happens when the market opens low, goes lower, and then closes in the top part of the range. This suggests that although the sentiment was bearish, the bulls were taking control.

On the other hand, when I look at the weekly chart, I see that our current price action is caught in a range near the same level of consolidation made last year (left side of the chart) where the low may act as a magnet if we continue to make lower lows on the daily.

Another question that I ask is who is winning and who is losing? Right now the bears are winning but have been winning for nearly 8 weeks now. The professional short trader has probably taken the bulk of his/her profits but may be trading a smaller short position to manage the risk of giving back profit if a counter-rally ensues. At this point, he/she is fat and happy wondering how far down can this market realistically go? The non-professional bulls have been getting killed while the professionals are most likely sitting on the sidelines waiting for the best opportunity to get back in the market.
Next, I would ask, "If I were a professional, where would I take gains?" Also, "What is the downside price risk if a new low trades?" On the weekly, I would take gains at former support levels which are approximately 4% lower which also happens to be the downside risk if the market goes lower.
Finally, I would ask, "What would reverse the order flow to the upside?" "Could that be today's news?"
Well, I have heard that pundits on the news channels are claiming that we still have more downside. Is it that obvious? As a contrarian, I tend to think that what is obvious to the crowd rarely plays out that way, but what would be the catalyst for change? It's not positive earnings results as most companies are feeling pressure from supply chain issues and inflation and are warning of a slowing economy. However, Gil Morales (former money manager for Bill O'Neil and Author of several books on investing/trading) says that the "Wild Card" might be if the Federal Reserve "cries uncle" and prematurely reverses interest rates and QE. Still a wait and see in my opinion, however, one can certainly make a case that after 8 weeks down the probability that a counter-trend rally occurs is more likely the further it goes.